price trend analysis
In the first quarter of 2021, the price trend of China’s graphite electrode is strong, mainly benefiting from the high price of raw materials, which promotes the continuous rise of graphite electrode prices. Enterprises are pressurized to produce, and the market has strong willingness to offer prices. Moreover, the supply of small and medium-sized specifications resources is tight, which is good for the overall upward trend of graphite electrode prices.
China’s graphite electrode market in the second quarter showed a rapid uptrend after holding steady. The rapid upward trend is mainly reflected in April, when steel mills started a new round of bidding. The profit of downstream electric furnace steel mills is high and the operation is high, which is good for graphite electrode demand. On the other hand, Inner Mongolia double control of energy consumption, graphitization supply is tight, graphite electrode supply is reduced, increasing the driving force of graphite electrode price. However, in May and June, the price of raw petroleum coke is bearish, overlay downstream suppression, graphite electrode price rise is weak.
In the third quarter, the price of Graphite electrode in China was stable and weak. With the traditional off-season of demand and strong supply side, the mismatch between supply and demand led to the downward price of graphite electrode. In terms of raw materials, the price continues to rise. Under the pressure of cost, the price of graphite electrode is firm. However, some graphite electrode enterprises quickly clear the inventory and withdraw funds, resulting in the price of graphite electrode falling at the beginning and end of the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter, due to the impact of domestic production and power restrictions, the price of raw materials in China continued to rise. The price of low sulfur petroleum coke and asphalt increased significantly, and the price of electricity was high. The graphitization supply in Inner Mongolia and other places was tight and the price was high. However, production and power limit, although affected graphite electrode enterprises, but the downstream electric furnace steel starting low, low profits, also caused a decline in market demand, supply and demand weak, price reversal. There is no demand, only cost, and there is no stable support for price increases, so short-term price corrections have become the occasional normal phenomenon.
In general, the overall shock of China’s graphite electrode market in 2021 is strong. On the one hand, raw material prices promote the rise and fall of graphite electrode costs; on the other hand, the operation and profit of electric furnace steel mills effectively drive the rise and fall of graphite electrode prices. The rise and fall of the graphite electrode market in 2021, regardless of the supply side, deduces the price fluctuation of graphite electrode throughout the year with raw material costs and downstream demand as the leading role.
Prospect of domestic graphite electrode market in 2022
Production: 1 to 2 months, mainstream graphite electrode enterprises maintain normal production condition, but as the winter Olympics atmospheric environmental governance approaches, after entering in January, Inner Mongolia, shanxi, hebei, henan, shandong, liaoning and other places will face shutdown overhaul, cut and remain low, market construction in March after graphite electrode spot resources supply tight market as a whole.
Inventory, in the fourth quarter of 2021 to leak electricity aspect influence, the market demand is far less than expected, the foreign market demand by the outbreak raised again, inventory reserves in the New Year will is not strong, graphite electrode business inventories tired libraries, although some enterprises to accelerate the money collecting on sale, but downstream demand is not clear, malicious competition and speeding up the market, inventory is not high, But the tired imagination is more obvious.
In terms of demand, the demand of China’s graphite electrode market is mainly reflected in the steel market, export market and silicon metal market. Iron and steel market: in January and February, the iron and steel market starts at a low level. Mainstream steel mills have pre-stock inventory of graphite electrodes, and electric furnace steel mills are in operation or general. In the short term, the overall purchasing intention of steel mills is not strong, and the downstream demand is flat in the short term. Silicon metal market: silicon metal industry has not gone through the dry season. In the short term, silicon metal industry still continues the weak start state of the year before, and the demand for graphite electrode continues to be stable and weak before the year.
In terms of exports, freight rates remain high, and professional understanding is expected that freight rates will continue to run at a high level for a period of time, and may ease in 2022. In addition, the problem of global seaport congestion has also been around 2021. In Europe and East Asia, for example, the average delay is 18 days, and the time of shipping is 20% more than before, resulting in high sea freight costs. Eu launches anti-dumping investigation into Graphite electrodes from China. The export of Graphite electrode enterprises in China will be influenced to a certain extent. The long ruling time and imposition of anti-dumping duties will affect the export volume and export price of Chinese enterprises.
Comprehensive analysis, graphite electrode market demand side performance or rebound in the second quarter, and with the downstream steel mills have started, the mainstream steel stocking inventory gradually consumed, is expected to march about steel demand for graphite electrode will gradually recover; About April, silicon metal industry will pass the dry season, silicon metal industry operation rate is expected to rise, the graphite electrode demand is good, the second quarter of the graphite electrode may reach a high, supply and demand are prosperous, due to the short-term supply and demand mismatch, supply price war will be more intense. Three or four quarters, the domestic graphite electrode electrode market will run high or low.
Post time: Jan-18-2022